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Back in 2018, a mere eight words to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution of Stance and Settled Issues

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing youths can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he believes a customs pact has been made much harder as ministers are actively diverging from European rules across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document & Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It includes only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from concluding that this makes America an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an attempt to keep open the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Danger and A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the impact that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.